More than anything else, horse racing is about making money. More than the pomp, more than the hats, more than the fancy cocktails, the sport runs on gambling, and as we’ve seen, a longshot can make his way to the winner’s circle, causing exultation in those holding winning tickets and dejection in those who aren’t.
Two years ago, Rich Strike came out of nowhere to pay $163.50 to win for a $2 bet. In 2019, runner-up Country House was elevated to first after Maximum Security, who would have paid about $11 to win, was disqualified. Country House paid $132.40.
The 2013-2018 Derby renewals were fairly formful, but go back a decade or so and you get I’ll Have Another (2012, $32.60), Animal Kingdom (2011, $43.80), and Mine That Bird (2009, $103.20). In 2005, Giacomo paid $102.60.
Some of the people who cashed those tickets did so with shrewd handicapping and seeing what other bettors didn’t. Some people bet Giacomo because they like gray horses. My friend who loves birds had a win ticket on Mine That Bird.
So if you see a longshot you like, because of his pedigree, because of his name, because of the trainer, throw down a few bucks. You don’t want to be that person saying “woulda, coulda, shoulda” when the race is over.
Here are the longshots I’m considering:
Dornoch
Morning line odds: 20-1
The forecast for the weekend is dismal, so I’m giving a hard look to horses that have run well on a wet track. Dornoch is one of those, having won the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes over a muddy surface last fall. He’s a full brother to last year’s winner Mage, too.
Mystik Dan
Morning line odds: 20-1
This guy loves the slop, too. He won the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park by eight lengths on a muddy track, and while there’s not much else to inspire confidence, that might be enough to move him up.
Honor Marie
Morning line odds: 20-1
He’s got a record of inconsistent performances, and a wet track won’t help him much, so I’ll look at him if the track is rated good or fast on Saturday.
West Saratoga
Morning line odds: 50-1
In lesser competition, he’s generally finished in the money, but trainer Larry Demeritte is only the third Black trainer to have a horse in the Derby in nearly 75 years, and that’s reason enough for him to root for and bet him. And while he’s named for a street in Colorado, the name also evokes my hometown in upstate New York, so how could I not?
Stronghold
Morning line odds: 20-1
I’m more tepid on this guy than on some of the others; I like what he’s done on the racetrack, but his running style puts him up against it in a race like this, and he’s never run on a wet track. On a dry track, he’s worth considering.
Resilience
Morning line odds: 20-1
He’s trained by Bill Mott, a world-class horseman who doesn’t enter horses just for the hell of it. That’s good enough for me.
(Photo of Mystik Dan: Andy Lyons / Getty Images)