It is 10 days until Euro 2024 kicks off, and the first round of warm-up fixtures is well underway. Group A hopefuls Switzerland will look to begin their preparations against an Estonia side who failed to qualify for the tournament.
Both sides enter this fixture on a barren run of form. The Swiss Nati only won a single game out of their last seven in their qualifying campaign, but were able to achieve a 0-0 draw vs Denmark and a 1-0 victory over the Republic of Ireland in the March 2024 internationals.
Their opponents have not experienced the feeling of winning since a 1-0 victory over Finland in January 2023. Estonia were only able to muster 1 point during their qualification efforts, and come into this fixture on the back of a 5-1 thrashing from Poland and a 2-1 defeat at the hands of Finland. The away side will be looking to turn their fortunes around, as they prepare for their Baltic Cup semi-final against the Faroe Islands.
In the previous four encounters between the two sides, Switzerland have emerged victorious in them all and will be heavily expected to continue that unbeaten run tonight. The last fixture between the two was in 2015 and ended in a 1-0 Swiss victory.
Switzerland will be without goalkeeper Gregor Kobel, who featured for Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League final on Saturday, and will also be sweating on the fitness of Denis Zakaria who missed the last 3 games of the Ligue 1 season with a hamstring injury.
Thomas Häberli will have his full squad at his disposal in what will be his last game in charge of the Estonian national side before Jürgen Henn takes over.
Both sides have operated in a 3-5-2 shape in recent fixtures, and therefore expect them to continue that trend and match up against each other tonight.
Switzerland will call upon the likes of Granit Xhaka and Remo Freuler to use their experience and quality to dominate the Estonian midfield.
Xhaka has excelled in the past season with Bayer Leverkusen, as he was influential in a title-winning season. A player who is so comfortable on the ball and ranks in the 99th percentile for progressive passes against midfielders across the top 5 European leagues (via FBref).
With Estonia likely to play a low block and sit in deep, Switzerland will need their captain’s creativity to help unlock their defence and play quickly in transition.
Switzerland are very likely to have much more of the ball (Estonia have recorded possession stats of 39%, 26% and 30% in their last 3 matches), and will be able to push Xhaka and Freuler on as advanced eights with the third midfielder sitting deeper to cover the defence.
This would usually be Zakaria but with him only recently returning from a hamstring injury, Murat Yakin may turn to Frueler’s Bologna FC teammate Michel Aebischer.
Estonia will need AS Roma‘s 20-year-old midfielder Martin Vetkal to be on top form if they are to gain anything from this fixture. They will rely on him, FC Flora Tallinn‘s Markus Soomets and Shamrock Rovers‘ Markus Poom to harass the Swiss midfield, help cover the passing lanes into the Swiss Nati forwards and provide ample protection for their defence.
Switzerland and Estonia have both found goals hard to come by in recent form.
Yakin’s team have only scored three goals in their last five fixtures, meanwhile, the away side are on an even more severe barren run having only found the net four times in their last 10 matches.
The Swiss Nati will be looking for the returning Breel Embolo to provide a much-needed spark. The strong, pacey striker who possesses a great ability to create chances for his teammates, as well as himself, has been sorely missed, and Yakin will be thankful he can rely on a player with 13 goals for his national side.
Zeki Amdouni was Switzerland’s top scorer in their qualification campaign with six goals and will be called upon to continue his efforts whilst linking up with Embolo.
After a difficult season which saw his club side Burnley relegated from the Premier League, Amdouni will hope to secure his starting position for the Euros with a good performance v Estonia tonight.
AC Milan striker Noah Okafor will also be hoping to feature and add to his two international goals.
The pace all three forwards possess will be vital for Switzerland at Euro 2024 as they look to counter teams quickly, but tonight will be a very different task against a side who defend deep. Therefore expect to see Switzerland lean heavily on Embolo’s strong link-up play with his back to goal and Amdouni’s creativity.
Estonia will be calling upon experienced striker Henri Anier, who is currently plying his trade in the Hong Kong Premier League for Lee Man FC. With 22 goals in 93 international appearances, he has shown the ability to be a nuisance and punish defences, even when the service is not always consistent.
Whilst Estonia will set up resolutely and battle bravely, anything less than a comfortable Swiss win would be deemed very disappointing for the 19th FIFA world-ranked side.
If they are hoping to progress in a group consisting of hosts Germany, as well as Hungary and Scotland, then tonight will need to be a formality in preparation, and with the quality and experience they possess, Yakin will expect his side to do just that.