Matchday three in Group A may be full of twists and turns but Germany know they’re already through to the Round of 16 before they face Switzerland in Frankfurt.
The Swiss could still pip Julian Nagelsmann’s side to first place with a win, one of two scenarios that would see the host meet tournament favourites England next.
Four points and a positive goal difference through two matches should also guarantee that Switzerland make it to the knockout stages.
It’s possible that finishing third in Group A could produce a more favourable draw than finishing second, but the key factor here is the pressure is off both sides, so they’re free to play.
Despite topping the group with a perfect record, there were times in the 2-0 win over Hungary where Germany looked stretched and susceptible to the counter.
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They may have dominated 70% of possession, but half of their chances were from outside the box as the Hungarians created more big chances
Similarly, Switzerland beat Hungary 3-1 in their opening match after a dominant first-half performance. In the second half, however, they lost all control and nearly lost their lead.
We’ve established the circumstances lend themselves to an open and attacking game, as do apparent defensive frailties, but head-to-head results also suggest goals.
While previous results have no direct impact on this fixture, there are endless examples of fixtures in football that just seem to catch fire.
The sides last met in the 2020 Nations League and shared the spoils as they drew 3-3 in Germany and 1-1 in Switzerland. Before that, the Swiss ran out 5-3 winners in a 2012 friendly.
Team news
Germany could opt to rest key players like Florian Wirtz, Jamal Musiala and Kai Havertz on Sunday.
Leroy Sane, Chris Fuhrich and Niclas Fullkrug could make their first start of the tournament.
Nagelsmann is unlikely to disrupt partnerships through the spine with Manuel Neur, Jonathan Tag, Antonio Rudiger, Toni Kroos and Robert Andrich keeping their place.
Xherdan Shaqiri made his first start at this year’s Championship on matchday two and scored a wondergoal from outside the box.
Murat Yakin replaced goalscorer Kwadwo Duah with Dan Ndoye in the last match and could make further changes with Breel Embolo returning to fitness.
Key stats
– Germany have won their first two matches, beating Scotland 5-1 and Hungary 2-0
– At least one side has scored two goals in 12 of Germany’s last 13 matches
– Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals has occurred in eight of Germany’s last 12
– Switzerland’s last match had 13 corners, while Germany’s had 18
– Both teams have scored in Switzerland’s last five matches at the Euros
Suggested bets
Both teams score & over 2.5 goals