Euro 2024 state of play: Who needs what to reach the knockout stage?

The final round of group games at Euro 2024 get underway today (June 23) and there is an enormous amount to play for as teams battle to reach the knockout stage.

Of the 24 countries competing, only Poland (who have been eliminated) and Spain and Portugal (both topping the group) are assured of their finishing positions.

The top two sides in each of the six groups will advance to the knockout stage, where they will be joined by the four highest-ranked third-placed teams.

If teams are level on points, the tiebreaker to decide who finishes where will be points obtained in matches between the sides in question, not overall goal difference, like it is at the World Cup. If teams still cannot be split, it will go to goal difference in all group matches, then goals scored in all group matches.

The round-of-16 games take place from Saturday, June 29 to Tuesday, July 2; the quarter-finals are on Friday, July 5 and Saturday, July 6; the semi-finals on Tuesday, July 9 and Wednesday, July 10; and the final in Berlin is on Sunday, July 14.

Here, The Athletic details the state of play in each group, what each team needs to do to reach the knockout stage and who may be facing who in the next round. This article will be updated as the tournament progresses.

Group A

Results so far: Germany 5-1 Scotland, Hungary 1-3 Switzerland, Germany 2-0 Hungary, Scotland 1-1 Switzerland.

Remaining fixtures: Sunday, June 23: Switzerland v Germany & Scotland v Hungary (both 8pm UK time; 3pm ET).

Germany: The hosts are through to the knockout stage and will win the group if they avoid defeat against Switzerland.

Switzerland: The Swiss are guaranteed to finish in the top three and if they draw with Germany, they will come second. If they beat Julian Nagelsmann’s team, they will win the group. If they lose, they will go through in second if Scotland don’t win. Even if Scotland do pick up three points and Switzerland lose, it is likely the Swiss will still come second due to their superior goal difference. And even if they do end up third, they are still likely to go through as one of the four best third-placed sides.

Scotland: Scotland realistically need to beat Hungary to have any chance of going through. If they do win and Switzerland lose to Germany, then Steve Clarke’s side will come second if there is a sufficient enough swing in goal difference in their favour. However, if they come third, their four points should still be enough to see them through to the knockout stage. If Scotland lose to Hungary, they will be eliminated.

Hungary: Hungary must beat Scotland to have any chance of going through which, at the very most, will be as one of the four best third-placed teams.

Group B

Results so far: Spain 3-0 Croatia, Italy 2-1 Albania, Croatia 2-2 Albania, Spain 1-0 Italy.

Remaining fixtures: Monday, June 24: Albania v Spain & Croatia v Italy (both 8pm UK time; 3pm ET).

Spain: Luis de la Fuente’s side have won the group with a game to spare.

Italy: The Italians will finish second if they avoid defeat by Croatia. If they lose and Albania beat Spain, then the defending champions will finish bottom of the group and be eliminated. If they lose and Albania don’t win, then Luciano Spalletti’s team will come third and be left waiting on other results to see if they qualify as a best third-placed team.

Albania: The Albanians realistically need to beat Spain to have any chance of going through. This could still be in second place if Croatia win and don’t finish with a superior goal difference to Sylvinho’s side. If Albania do come third, their four points should be enough to qualify for the knockout stage. If they lose to Spain, they will be out.

Croatia: The 2018 World Cup finalists need to beat Italy to have any genuine chance of going through and could still come second. If they lose, they will be out.

Group C

Results so far: Slovenia 1-1 Denmark, Serbia 0-1 England, Slovenia 1-1 Serbia, Denmark 1-1 England.

Remaining fixtures: Tuesday, June 25: England v Slovenia & Denmark v Serbia (both 8pm UK time; 3pm ET).

England: England will go though if they avoid defeat against Slovenia and will top the group if they win. Gareth Southgate’s side could still finish first with a draw, if Denmark fail to beat Serbia by more than one goal. If they beat Serbia by exactly one goal, then first place will be decided on goals scored over the whole group stage. If England lose, they will come third if Denmark win, but second if the Danes don’t triumph over Serbia. Even if England do come third, though, their four points should be enough to qualify as one of the best third-placed teams.

Denmark: If the Danes win they will qualify for the knockout stage and this will be in first place if the result in the game between England and Slovenia goes their way. If the 1992 champions draw with Serbia, they will go through in second place if Slovenia don’t win (or draw and don’t finish up having scored more goals). If Denmark draw and Slovenia win, the Danes will be relying on results in other groups to go their way in the hope of qualifying as a third-placed team. Defeat by Serbia will almost certainly mean Denmark are eliminated.

Slovenia: Victory over England will ensure Slovenia’s passage to the knockout stage and this will be as group winners if Denmark don’t beat Serbia or don’t do so by enough to finish with a superior goal difference to Matjaz Kek’s side. A draw with England will leave Slovenia relying on the result in the Denmark-Serbia game going their way if they are to finish in the top two and if it doesn’t, they will come third and be left sweating on results elsewhere. Losing to England will almost certainly condemn Slovenia to a group-stage exit.

Serbia: Dragan Stojkovic’s side must win to have any realistic chance of going through. They will come second if they pick up three points and Slovenia fail to beat England. If they don’t come in the top two, however, four points will likely be enough to take them through as one of the best third-placed sides.

Group D

Results so far: Poland 1-2 Netherlands, Austria 0-1 France, Poland 1-3 Austria, Netherlands 0-0 France.

Remaining fixtures: Tuesday, June 25: Netherlands v Austria & France v Poland (both 5pm UK time; 12pm ET).

Netherlands: Ronald Koeman’s side will qualify if they don’t lose to Austria. And if they do avoid defeat, they will win the group if they at least match France’s result against Poland — providing the French don’t score enough to finish with a superior goal difference. They could come third if they lose and the outcome of the France-Poland game doesn’t go their way, but the Dutch should still go through in this situation thanks to already having picked up four points.

France: Very similar situation to Netherlands (outlined above), but the French will be confident of beating Poland by enough to guarantee top spot.

Austria: If Ralf Rangnick’s side win, they will qualify and this will be as group winners if France don’t beat Poland. A draw would see them finish third on four points (likely enough to qualify) and defeat would also see them come third, but their three points would be far from certain of ensuring qualification as a best third-placed team.

Poland: The Poles have been eliminated.

Group E

Results so far: Romania 3-0 Ukraine, Belgium 0-1 Slovakia, Slovakia 1-2 Ukraine, Belgium 2-0 Romania.

Remaining fixtures: Wednesday, June 26: Slovakia v Romania & Ukraine v Belgium (both 5pm UK time; 12pm ET).

For the first time in the history of the European Championship, four teams in the same group will begin the final round of fixtures all on the same number of points. Any side that wins their match will qualify — and that will be as group winners if the other game is drawn or if they have already beaten the victor of that other match.

If both matches are drawn, then goal difference in all group matches will be used to separate the teams due to their head-to-head points totals being identical — that would send Romania and Belgium through (with top spot decided by goals scored), while third-placed Slovakia would have to wait and see. Ukraine would be eliminated in this situation.

Group F

Results so far: Turkey 3-1 Georgia, Portugal 2-1 Czech Republic, Georgia 1-1 Czech Republic, Turkey 0-3 Portugal.

Remaining fixtures: Wednesday, June 26: Georgia v Portugal & Czech Republic v Turkey (both 8pm UK time; 3pm ET).

Portugal: Roberto Martinez’s side have won the group with a game to spare.

Turkey: If the Turks avoid defeat against the Czech Republic, they will finish second and go through. If they lose and Georgia don’t beat Portugal, then Vincenzo Montella’s side will finish third with three points and will have to see if this is enough to advance. If they lose and Georgia win, they will be eliminated.

Czech Republic: To have any genuine chance of progression, Czech Republic must beat Turkey. This will be in second place if Georgia fail to beat Portugal by enough to swing the goal difference in their favour.

Georgia: The Georgians must beat Portugal to have any realistic chance of going through to the knockout stage. If they do win, they will come second if Czech Republic beat Turkey but not by enough to finish with a superior goal difference. Otherwise, a win will see them finish third (though their four points would likely be enough to qualify.)

Here is how the third-placed teams rank heading into the final round of games, though of course this will change frequently over the coming days. Remember, four of the six sides who come third will advance to the knockout stage.

If any of these teams are tied on points then goal difference in all group matches will be used to separate them and then, if needed, and in the following order: goals scored, wins, disciplinary records and European qualifiers overall ranking will be implemented.

And here is the bracket for the knockout stages, which The Athletic will update as the tournament progresses:

(Top photo: Christopher Lee – UEFA/UEFA via Getty Images)