In this scenario, even two wins won’t do the Nati any good

The Swiss national team can still make it into the Nations League. But this undertaking is a tough one.

The Swiss national team is up to its neck in the Nations League. Four of the six games have been played, and Murat Yakin’s squad is sitting in the bottom of the table with just one point.

Relegation to Group B of the Nations League is imminent. The Nati are three points off third place with two games to go. This difference must be made up on Friday evening in the direct duel against Serbia – and even more. The fact is: Switzerland must win against Serbia if they are to avoid relegation at all. Here are the possible scenarios:

According to UEFA regulations, in the event of a tie on points, the direct matches between the teams with the same number of points decide in the first instance. Denmark currently have seven points and Serbia four. If the national team wins against Spain and Serbia and Denmark loses against Spain and Serbia, there will be three teams with seven points.

In this three-way battle with Denmark and Serbia, the Nati would lose out. With four points from the direct encounters, Switzerland would have fewer points than Denmark (six points) and Serbia (four points).

With less than three points from the direct duel against Serbia, who are currently in third place, relegation to League B is a fact. The game against European champions Spain degenerates into a mere test match.

After a win on Friday evening, Switzerland would be level on points with Serbia. However, a win with a one-goal difference would still leave Switzerland behind Serbia. In order to overtake the Serbs in the table before the last game, the national team must win by at least two goals.

2:0 win against Serbia

In the event of a 2:0 victory over Serbia, the national team will be in third place before the final matchday, in which case Monday evening’s games will be decisive. Switzerland avoids relegation in these scenarios:

– Switzerland pick up more points than Serbia in their final game.

– Switzerland and Serbia win, Denmark pick up at least one point against Spain on Friday and Switzerland win against Spain with the same or better goal difference than Serbia against Denmark.

– Serbia and Switzerland play to a draw in their last matches. The Serbs score a maximum of two goals more than Switzerland.

– Switzerland loses against Spain and Serbia loses against Denmark with the same or better goal difference.

1:0 win against Serbia

Assuming Switzerland beats Serbia 1:0, it must score more points in the last match than the Eastern Europeans.

A resounding victory against Serbia

If Switzerland manage to beat Serbia by three goals or more, Serbia will have to score more points than Switzerland in the final game to snatch third place from them – or, if they score the same number of points, they will have to achieve a better goal difference.

For the Nati, third place is the maximum – more is no longer possible. This means they have not yet secured their place in the league. Switzerland would have to play a second-placed team from League B in the relegation play-off. And these opponents are tough: as things stand, they are Georgia, Greece, Norway and Wales. However, it is also possible that the opponents could be England, Turkey, the Czech Republic, Albania or Slovenia.