- England have only lined up in a 3-4-3 formation once in their last 30 matches
- Gareth Southgate could revert to his once-favoured system against Switzerland
- LISTEN to It’s All Kicking Off! EUROS DAILY: How much of a risk is it for England to play with three at the back?
Gareth Southgate has set his England team up in a 4-2-3-1 formation in each of their first four games at Euro 2024 but he could now be set to switch his system.
The England boss has been so reluctant to make changes so far that he has used only 13 different starting players in Germany, with 10 of those players starting in all four matches.
But change will be thrust upon Southgate on Saturday due to the suspension of centre back Marc Guehi.
Perhaps fearful that Guehi’s absence could make England vulnerable against a dangerous Switzerland side, Southgate is considering picking an extra central defender and going back to the 3-4-3 formation that he used throughout the 2018 World Cup in Russia, as well as against Germany and Italy at Euro 2020.
Indeed, Southgate’s team were spotted lining up in a 3-4-3 shape during a training session this week.
England manager Gareth Southgate is considering using a 3-4-3 formation on Saturday
Marc Guehi will be suspended for Saturday’s Euro 2024 quarter-final against Switzerland
Reverting to his old formation makes sense on one hand. This is a formation in which the Three Lions reached a World Cup semi-final in 2018 and were then just a penalty shootout away from continental glory three years later.
But a lot has changed in terms of personnel since 3-4-3 was in vogue in the England camp.
Southgate has firmly been a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 man since September 2021 – just two months after his side’s penalty heartbreak in the final of a COVID-delayed Euros.
He briefly switched back to 3-4-3 at the end of 2021 but that only lasted two games. Those games were a 10-0 victory over San Marino – in which Bukayo Saka and Trent Alexander-Arnold were deployed as very attacking wing backs – and then a 2-1 friendly win over this Saturday’s opponents, Switzerland.
Since then, England have played 30 games and started with a back four in 29 of them. The only exception was a 3-3 draw with Germany in the UEFA Nations League nearly two years ago.
England’s back three the last time they played 3-4-3 was made up of John Stones, Harry Maguire and Eric Dier. However, Southgate’s more trusted defensive trio was historically Stones, Maguire and Kyle Walker – who started together 10 times across the 2018 World Cup and Euro 2020.
Maguire is not in Southgate’s current squad but the England boss is not short of centre backs, with Lewis Dunk, Joe Gomez and Ezri Konsa all waiting for their first starts.
Guehi could be replaced by Lewis Dunk (left), Ezri Konsa (centre) or Joe Gomez (right)
Harry Maguire, pictured (right) hugging John Stones at the 2022 World Cup, is not in the squad
Many fans may be concerned that adding another central defender to a team that has so far looked largely lifeless in attack at Euro 2024 is the opposite of what Southgate should be doing.
However, others believe that it could actually make the team more attacking – a theory partly based on the idea that it would allow England’s back line to more confidently push higher up the field.
But what do the numbers say?
England have played a back four in each of their last 23 matches, including friendlies. They have scored 48 goals in those matches at an average of 2.09 per game.
In their last 23 games playing 3-4-3, England netted 45 times at an average of 1.96.
England have won 13 of their last 23 games that started with them playing four at the back, drawing seven and losing three.
The Three Lions have won 12, drawn six and lost five of their last 23 games in a 3-4-3.
England last lined up in a 3-4-3 system in September 2022 when they drew 3-3 with Germany
The Three Lions have started every game at Euro 2024 in a 4-2-3-1 shape but that could change
Those numbers should, of course, be taken with a pinch of salt considering the varying standard of opposition.
However, when you consider that the records are fairly similar despite Southgate’s recent preference to reserve 3-4-3 for tougher opponents, it could suggest that a tactical switch for Saturday may not be such a crazy move.