This angle is mainly predicated on Gareth Southgate’s proposed change of formation and how that will affect the match from a tactical perspective.
If it is to be 3-4-3, or even 3-5-2, for England then this creates a situation by which England and Switzerland will be matched up on formation. This creates one-v-one duels all over the pitch, from wing back v wing back, to two-v-two in central midfield.
Not only do these duels exist all over the pitch, but it also means that if a player is beaten, either through skill or by being outpaced, then there is an element of chaos whereby it is imperative for the break to be stopped as there is an inevitable overload somewhere on the pitch as a result of the imbalance.
Obviously, this is not table football, and it is not as simple as man for man coverage, but there is certainly more options for individual duels, and therefore, more potential for fouls.
Switzerland are well used to this system, it is their preferred system and one that they have used for many years. England come into this match off the back of a number of training sessions where they will be trialling and tweaking this, and undoubtedly they will be doing the best that they can with it. However, there is no way that this can feel natural on the pitch, having not played this way for a long time. This gives Switzerland a potential advantage as England get used to the new shape, and the Three Lions could rack up some fouls early on as a result.
Traditionally, England under Southgate are not a high foul team. However, this often changes when playing against a team that are their equal. They managed 13 fouls against Belgium in a friendly, and 11 against Brazil in that same period, and those were in friendlies without the pressure on.
Switzerland will also have a major part to play in this. They drew 15 fouls against Italy in the last round, and 11 fouls were drawn against Germany and Scotland. They employ a number of players who are well capable of drawing multiple fouls. Dan Ndoye has been fouled ten times in his four matches so far, Michel Aesbischer has drawn two fouls per game, while Breel Embolo averages almost 3 fouls against per 90 in a Switzerland shirt.
This bet does hope for a referee that tends to pick up on fouls rather than allow the game to flow, and Italian Daniele Orsato is experienced but tends to be a high volume yellow card giver, which often goes hand-in-hand with fouls being given. He has averaged 26 fouls per game at the Euros so far, which is a fairly high number.
This bet also has a better chance of winning if England have something to hold on to, they conceded six fouls in half an hour against Slovakia after they had edged ahead. The cynical nature of holding onto a lead in a knockout match would nudge the probabilities higher for this bet, but it has a good chance regardless of gamestate.