England v Switzerland
Kick Off: Saturday 6th July at 17:00
Down to the final eight and it would be fair to say that most England fans are still waiting for their team to kick into gear.
However, this level of consistency from the Three Lions in terms of progression in major international tournaments has now reached a point of unprecedented success. This is the fourth time in a row that England have reached the quarter-final stage of a major tournament, and they are favourites to reach the semi-finals for the third time in four tournaments according to the bookmakers.
Standing in the way of Gareth Southgate’s side are Switzerland, who are looking for their first-ever semi-final appearance at a major international football tournament. In complete fairness, their victory over Italy in the last round was one of the most professional, and complete performances of the tournament so far, and one couldn’t fail but be impressed by their organisation and ability.
Whilst the bookmakers have England as favourites to progress in this tie, it is well worth analysing where the value may be in the betting markets here.
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The winner of this tie will face either the Netherlands or Turkey at the semi-final stage next Wednesday.
England v Switzerland Best Bets
➡️ Switzerland double chance @ 1.62 with Paddy Power
➡️ Silvan Widmer to foul Bukayo Saka @ 2.0 with Paddy Power
There are rumours of a change of shape for England ahead of this match. The suspension of Marc Guehi, combined with an acceptance that England’s performances have been lacklustre has potentially led to Gareth Southgate seeking to change the way that his team build-up or construct attacks.
If, as suspected, England changes to a 3-4-3 formation, then this would match up to Switzerland and could create a situation in which it is more of a man-for-man battle. This, on paper, may service England in that some of their players are perceived to be better than their Swiss counterparts, but, more likely, it could stifle creative play even further than is suggested in the data.
Therefore, the draw comes further into play here. Switzerland have probably been slightly more impressive than England to this stage and it could be worth taking Switzerland on the double chance market.
However, the best bet comes in the form of Silvan Widmer to foul Bukayo Saka. This bet does depend on Saka starting at left wing-back, which seems the most likely scenario given team news, and if he does then, as mentioned above, it becomes a fairly personal duel between these two wing-backs.
Widmer is returning from suspension, and he has fouled in every Euro 2024 match so far, he averages over 1.3 fouls per match in a Switzerland shirt, and Bukayo Saka can be something of a fouls magnet. Saka was in the top ten most fouled players in the Premier League last season, he has been fouled seven times in four matches already in this tournament and averages 1.76 fouls against per 90 for England. Given the personal nature of the battle here, it looks like a very solid chance that Widmer is the most likely player to commit a foul against Saka.
📂 England v Switzerland Cheat Sheet
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You can find England v Switzerland match stats on my bet builder stats tool, along with official line-ups one hour before kick-off.
📊 England Form and Stats
Taking into account the final qualifier and the pre-tournament friendlies, England have now got two wins in nine over 90 minutes.
The Three Lions are very fortunate to still be in the tournament after it took a late Jude Bellingham masterstroke to equalize against Slovakia.
One of the big concerns that Southgate has is that although chance creation numbers have been poor for a while, their defence had been solid. That was not the case against Slovakia, who, at 0-0, caused chaos, and with Marc Guehi now suspended for this match, there needs to be further reform in the back line.
There has not been a team that has scored more than once in 90 minutes in an England game all tournament, so goals are probably not a strong angle here either.
England rank 16th for xG created in the tournament overall, and eighth of the eight remaining nations. They are sixth-best for xG conceded though, fourth of the remaining eight.
📊 Switzerland Form and Stats
Switzerland beat Italy convincingly in the round of 16, and that propels them to two wins and two draws from the tournament so far. It would seem obvious that any nation that reaches this stage of the tournament is in pretty good form, but the performances of the Swiss team clearly show that they are in fine fettle.
There are plenty of options going forward, which is a bit different from Swiss teams of the past. It is uncertain which front three Murat Yakin will plump for, but Dan Ndoye will surely find a place, he has the highest xG and highest number of successful dribbles per 90 in the Switzerland squad for the tournament.
Goals have been more prevalent in Swiss matches. Both teams scored in all of their group games, and they notched twice against Italy.
They rank ninth overall in the tournament for xG created, but seventh out of the final eight, with England in eighth there is an argument for this to be the clash of the low creators. They are also seventh of the remaining eight and have an xG difference of +1 xG across their four matches.
⚔️ England v Switzerland Head-to-Head
There aren’t many nations which England have a better record against than Switzerland.
Out of nations that England have played 20 times or more, the only nation which England have a better win percentage against is Northern Ireland. England’s overall record against Switzerland is 18 wins, six draws, and three losses, with no losses to Switzerland since 1981.
The most recent match was a friendly in March 2022, which saw England come from behind to win at Wembley 2-1. Breel Embolo gave Switzerland the lead halfway through the first half before Luke Shaw equalised on the stroke of half-time and a Harry Kane penalty midway through the second half sealed the victory.
Interestingly, it looks as though only four of England’s starting XI that day will start in this match, whereas around eight of Switzerland’s lineup should take to the field again here.
Historical records aren’t usually of much relevance when it comes to international football, but in cases like this, there will be some psychological help, certainly in preparation for the match that England tends to have historical dominance over Switzerland.
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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