In June 1505, a 21-year-old student called Martin Luther was riding back to university to Erfurt from his parents’ home in Mansfeld when a thunderstorm struck. Fearing for his life, Luther prayed to St Anne, the patron saint of miners, calling on her to save him. If he was spared, Luther would give up a career in law and become a monk instead.
The storm passed and Luther, relieved to be alive, joined Erfurt’s Augustinian monastery.
Some 519 years later, Gareth Southgate returned through Erfurt, this time from Gelsenkirchen, after receiving his own divine deliverance. He, too, had been saved right at the moment when it looked like all was lost. And he, too, decided that having been thrown a lifeline, maybe it was time for a radical change of direction: three at the back in the quarter-final.
England are still considering what formation to use when they face Switzerland in Dusseldorf on Saturday afternoon. But they have trained with a back three this week and while adopting the system would be a new departure for England this tournament, where the team has been remarkably similar from game to game, it would also represent a return to something Southgate’s side have done before.
John Stones knows all about playing in a three for England in a major tournament. He was there for the Russia World Cup in 2018 when he anchored the three-man defence that took England all the way to the semi-finals, building their campaign on a run of solid defensive performances.
Southgate and Stones discuss a tactical switch against Slovakia (Image Photo Agency/Getty Images)
Southgate started Euro 2020 with a back four but was determined that the team should have a tactical Plan B to turn to if needed. When they faced Germany in the last 16, they went to a 3-4-3 and it delivered one of the greatest moments of the Southgate era: a 2-0 win. When they used it for the final of the tournament against Italy, they managed a 1-1 draw, only to lose on penalties.
When Stones spoke to the media at England’s base in Blankenhain on Thursday afternoon, he said their shared memory of playing this way would make a switch easy.
“We’ve done it in previous tournaments before,” he said, pointing to 2018 and the last Euros. “It’s a great thing to have in the locker for us as a team if we need to go to that and play that system. It’s something that shouldn’t be underestimated that we can do it so easily and seamlessly and kind of click together.”
Of course, England have done it more recently than that.
They did it in the first period of extra time against Slovakia last weekend, with Eberechi Eze and Bukayo Saka as wing-backs. They will not be able to replicate exactly what they did then against the Swiss: Marc Guehi is suspended, meaning Ezri Konsa, who played in the second half of extra time in Gelsenkirchen, is likely to replace him.
If England do go to a back three, then having Konsa on the left, rather than Lewis Dunk, would make sense. With Konsa and Kyle Walker either side of Stones, England would have the pace to defend in those wide areas either side of the centre-halves and behind the wing-backs.
So who would those wing-backs be?
On the right, England could choose between Kieran Trippier and Trent Alexander-Arnold. Trippier has started every game as a conventional left-back, but he would be more at home on his natural side. Alexander-Arnold started the first two group games in central midfield but has only enjoyed fleeting stints on the right. It still feels as if Trippier would have the edge.
Saka would be an option at left wing-back (Image Photo Agency/Getty Images)
On the left, you would expect Saka to play there, finally giving England some natural width down that side — something they have lacked all tournament.
It is not Saka’s favoured position, but he has played there plenty of times — for England and Arsenal — earlier on in his career. In theory, Luke Shaw could come straight into the team, but Southgate will not want to risk throwing Shaw straight in almost five months since his last competitive match.
GO DEEPER
Why England should play 3-4-3 with Bukayo Saka at left wing-back
Once the back five is in place, Southgate has five more positions to play with.
He could go for a 3-5-2, as he did in Russia, although there is no one obvious to play the Raheem Sterling role alongside Harry Kane. The closest equivalent in the squad is probably Jarrod Bowen, although he has not featured since his substitute appearances against Serbia and Denmark.
Alternatively, Southgate could go for a 3-4-3, as he used at Euro 2020, with Phil Foden and one other — maybe Anthony Gordon or Cole Palmer — either side of Kane.
Or, as has been discussed this week, he could go to a 3-4-2-1 with Foden and Bellingham as tandem No 10s in front of Declan Rice and Kobbie Mainoo.
What is clear after England’s first four games is that something has to change.
Before the Slovakia match, Southgate said he did not want to make wholesale changes to a team he thought was close to clicking. “You’ve got to be very careful not to throw everything out of the window,” he said, “and lose things you’re doing well and lose continuity and the confidence that comes from players playing together and the understanding that comes from those moments.”
But given how poor England were last Sunday in Gelsenkirchen and how fortunate they are to still be in Germany rather than on the beach, something has to change. If defeat in Dusseldorf means the end of Southgate, why not take a risk?
But the manager was very honest after the Slovakia game about the problems in the team, the lack of balance caused by Trippier playing at left-back, the fact he can only find “sticking plaster” solutions. And he admitted that “playing through the pressure in midfield” is a long-standing issue he has to fix.
Stones, too, in his Thursday press conference was very frank about England’s need to improve, to get back to the “fluid football” he said characterised Southgate’s earlier tournaments.
Perhaps the change in system would help England solve their issues with build-up. A back three should improve their ball circulation and help them play through Switzerland’s press. We saw when Switzerland won in the last 16 how effectively they were able to press Italy’s back four. “I knew that if the Italians came with a back four,” manager Murat Yakin said afterwards, “we would destroy them.”
After their experiences so far this tournament as a back-four team struggling to get out against back-three opposition, the last thing England want on Saturday is to suffer the same fate as Italy.
When England most famously deployed a back three, against Germany at Wembley at Euro 2020, it was to match up to the German system and effectively go man-to-man. Switzerland are less positional than that Germany side, but there are certainly ways it could work, such as the England wing-backs pinning back their Swiss counterparts, making it harder for them to press high. Remember how, when England played Denmark, it was the Danish wing-backs pinning back the English full-backs and how difficult that was to overcome.
Stones sat in the middle of the back three as England beat Germany three years ago (Shaun Botterill – UEFA/UEFA via Getty Images)
But with a back three in Dusseldorf, you could imagine the ways England might be able to cause Switzerland some tactical issues, disrupting their high press and always retaining the issue of going long through Jordan Pickford if they needed to. Anything to avoid the pattern of recent games where England’s build-up play increasingly resembles a horseshoe with Stones and Walker exasperatedly passing the ball to one another, frustrated at the lack of options in front of them, before eventually giving the ball away.
It is only because of Bellingham’s dramatic equaliser that England are still alive in this tournament, trying to come up with a plan to progress into the semi-finals. The miracle of Gelsenkirchen saved their tournament and maybe even saved Southgate’s tenure.
Now is the time for Southgate to make the most of his second chance.
GO DEEPER
The art of playing in a back three compared to a back four, told by those who have done it
(Top photo: Adrian Dennis/AFP via Getty Images)