NBA free agency: Paul George tops strong group of wings

NBA free-agency breakdown: Overall Top 25 | Point Guards | Shooting Guards | Power Forwards | Centers

The small forward position might offer the most inviting possibilities for cap space teams, with two legitimate difference-makers likely in unrestricted free agency in Paul George and OG Anunoby. Beyond that, multiple 3-and-D starting-caliber wings loom, making this easily the best positional market for this summer.

Our free-agent analysis continues as I break down the plausible free-agent shooting guards on the market this summer. Note the word plausible — 2023 second-rounders Jordan Walsh, Chris Livingston and Jalen Wilson also seem highly unlikely to be waived from their non-guaranteed deals for this season, for instance, so I didn’t include them here; nor did I include the Spurs’ Julian Champagnie’s non-guaranteed $3 million deal after he started most of last season.

Here’s how my BORD$ formula rates the value of all the options at small forward this offseason.

Tier I: Max and near-max guys

1. Paul George, LA Clippers (player option): $50,515,331

George is, without a doubt, the most interesting free agent to watch this summer. Smoke signals have been coming out since late winter that George and the Clippers weren’t on the same page on his next contract, with George wanting the full four-year bag and the Clippers wanting him to ink an extension for three years that would match their $150 million commitment to Kawhi Leonard.

That’s perhaps understandable given that George is 34 and has been increasingly hampered by assorted nicks and bruises; his 74 games played last season were his first full-ish season since leaving Oklahoma City. George, however, is also one of the league’s best two-way players, with the ability to play on or off the ball and guard multiple positions. The Boston Celtics showed us just how valuable players such as this are in roster construction.

The tension here is that George chose LA for a reason and presumably prefers to stay, all things being equal. But he can make $212 million over four years if another team signs him to a max deal, dwarfing what the Clips could put on the table unless they’re also willing to go to a fourth year.

Note that George has a player option for 2024-25 for $48 million; if he reached a new deal with the Clippers, it could happen by him opting into the deal and then appending years to it. That’s largely a technicality, however; either way, his next contract will have the same impact on the cap and the same limitations on raises and length.

2. OG Anunoby, New York (player option): $36,353,574

New York likely acquired Anunoby with some understanding of what it would take to keep him, especially given that he is repped by CAA, “The Official Agency of the New York Knickerbockers.”

Anunoby had a player option for next season, which he declined this week. The Knicks could have theoretically signed him to an extension off that number. However, because the salary on that option year was so low ($19.9 million) and extensions are limited to 140 percent raises on the final season of the previous contract, Anunoby was all but certain to opt out and sign a new contract. Look for his next deal to land in line with this BORD$ figure, around $140 million to $150 million over four years.

Tier II: More than midlevel exception, less than max

3. DeMar DeRozan, Chicago: $28,843,023

DeRozan is an interesting case because the magic number is less about money than it is about years. How far into the future are you willing to go for a soon-to-be 35-year-old who leans heavily on one-on-one scoring and isn’t a notably effective option off the ball?

Other issues loom, as well. For one, DeRozan’s game isn’t a fit everywhere. But the other issue to watch is Chicago’s luxury-tax position (despite being a big market, the Bulls historically have been loath to pay the tax).

If the Bulls can’t get relief from the $21 million owed to the injured Lonzo Ball, they would likely go over the tax line if they re-signed both DeRozan and Patrick Williams at their market rates. Thus, keep an eye on Zach LaVine – if they can turn his $43 million obligation for the coming season into something less onerous, it creates a lot more wiggle room to keep the rest of the roster intact.

4. Isaac Okoro, Cleveland (restricted): $22,714,624

Okoro might be a good target for cap room teams looking to sign an offer sheet. Cleveland is only about $11 million from next year’s projected tax line. Matching a strong offer for the young defensive specialist would take the Cavs past the first apron unless they made another trade to drop salary. (Caris LeVert and Georges Niang would be the two most likely alternatives.)

Okoro is only 23 and became more comfortable shooting from the perimeter in 2023-24, hitting 39.1 percent from 3 while increasing his volume. He still needs to develop as a movement shooter and get more comfortable in off-the-dribble situations, but he projects as a starting small forward who still has some upside left.

5. Saddiq Bey, Atlanta (restricted) $20,557,422

This number will likely shock Hawks fans, given that I created this formula and it shocked me. It also doesn’t account for the fact that Bey tore his ACL in March and would seem likely to miss a significant chunk of next season.

Bey is 25, and his 3-point shooting last season was outlier bad (31.6 percent) relative to the rest of his career, so Atlantans likely saw him at his worst. His uncertain health situation, however, makes it difficult to assess his value properly. The Hawks have matching rights on an offer sheet, but in the absence of a trade between now and the end of June, even his qualifying offer of $8.5 million could be a problem given the Hawks’ current luxury tax situation.

If Bey does return, even on a cheapo one-year deal, the benefit for both parties is that he would retain full Bird rights for a more lucrative future deal. That might be his best endgame if a market for a multi-year doesn’t develop due to his injury.

6. Caleb Martin, Miami (player option) $17,479,844

Martin has a player option for a mere $7.1 million for 2024-25; surely he will opt out of this and get a much bigger bag on the open market. Whether that bag can come from the Heat is an open question, as Miami is already over the projected tax line before paying Martin a cent and has other roster issues that require attention.

Teams shouldn’t get too carried away with Martin’s Stephen Curry imitation in the 2023 Eastern Conference finals; he’s a career 35.7-percent shooter from 3 and at age 28 profiles more as a third wing on a good team than a plus starter. That said, one presumes his absolute floor is the nontaxpayer midlevel exception (MLE), and if the right team gets desperate enough, it could be a lot more.

Tier III: Midlevel exception guys

7. Kelly Oubre, Philadelphia: $14,698,272

Oubre played for the minimum last season and probably isn’t real excited about doing so again; fortunately, he shouldn’t need to after averaging 15 points a game for a playoff team. The Sixers, however, are cleaning out everyone to use cap space this summer, so it’s not clear if he’ll be back. If so, the nontaxpayer MLE seems like a fair market for him, with the possibility of a cap room team going slightly over that to knock out the competition. A bigger question, perhaps: How many years would you give the 28-year-old?

8. Klay Thompson, Golden State: $13,525,013

This valuation might seem low to some people, but the idea of Thompson and the reality of Thompson have diverged pretty sharply over the past few years. While he remains a knockdown 3-point weapon (38.7 percent last season on a whopping 14.7 attempts per 100 possessions, 41.3 percent career), his overall efficiency marks are surprisingly ordinary because he forces shots inside the arc and virtually never draws fouls.

Combined with his limited passing and his decline on the defensive end — I’ve listed him with small forwards because the idea of him guarding twos is basically over — Thompson still rates as a useful player but no longer a starter. The idea of paying him $30 million a year or whatever at age 34 seems wild, and one can understand why the Warriors have held the line on overcommitting. 

9. Royce O’Neale, Phoenix: $13,000,914

As I mentioned here, O’Neale has the Suns over a barrel because they are over the second apron and thus can only replace him with minimum contracts if he leaves. Financially, the best-case scenario for the Suns is to limit the salary this year (to mitigate the luxury tax hit) and extend out the years on the deal instead, even though O’Neale is 31. Don’t be shocked if this ends up at three or four years in the $40 million to $50 million range.

10. Derrick Jones Jr., Dallas: $12,590,449

The conundrum for the Mavericks is that Jones established himself as being worth the nontaxpayer MLE or something close to it, but right now, Dallas can’t pay him that much. He’s coming off a minimum deal with no Bird rights, and the capped-out Mavs would have to dip into exception money to pay him.

Alas, Dallas would have to get under the tax apron first before it can shell out the nontaxpayer MLE. That likely involves trading either Tim Hardaway Jr. or Maxi Kleber to limbo under the bar.

If the Mavs can’t pull it off, rival suitors will likely await with checkbooks out. Jones, who is somehow still only 27, shot a respectable 34.3 percent from 3 and played exquisite wing defense last season.

11. Naji Marshall, New Orleans: $12,070,202

I see Marshall as one of the most interesting free-agent possibilities, as he’s a big wing whose team likely can’t afford to keep him. The Pelicans’ tax issues would seemingly prevent them from paying Marshall his market rate, and at 26, whatever team signs him should be getting his best years. Given both his ability and his getability, he should be one of the first calls for teams with the nontaxpayer midlevel exception and in need of wing help.

Tier IV: More than minimum

12. Haywood Highsmith, Miami: $8,770,106

Highsmith is a pretty limited offensive player, but his defensive ability and his 39.6 percent mark from 3 last season combine to make him an interesting 3-and-D guy for a team’s forward rotation. Miami’s tax issues could make it hard for the Heat to keep him if he has a respectable outside offer; contending teams with the room exception, like Philadelphia, should take a long look at filling out their roster with him.

13. Bruce Brown, Toronto (team option): $7,705,729

Brown has a team option for $23 million that the Raptors seem likely to use in a trade rather than letting him loose on the free-agent market. Of course, another option for Toronto would be to decline the option and re-sign Brown at a lower number (the lack of Bird rights wouldn’t matter since he’s coming off such a huge base salary), but if they have a trade ready to go this week and need Brown’s expiring number for the salary match, picking up the option makes sense.

Note that picking up the option would also extinguish the possibility of the Raptors being a cap room team this summer; they could generate $30 million in space by declining it.

14. Keita Bates-Diop, Brooklyn (player option): $6,136,670

I had a similar valuation on Bates-Diop last year, and he only got a minimum deal with a player option from Phoenix. Thus, I’m highly skeptical he’d do any better this time around after he fell out of favor with the Suns and played only 68 total minutes with the Nets. Our Shams Charania reported Monday that Bates-Diop will indeed pick up that option.

15. Troy Brown, Detroit (non-guaranteed): $5,079,809

Brown has a non-guaranteed deal for $4 million that becomes fully locked in June 30. The Pistons have cap room plans that could require shedding his salary before that date, but Brown pencils out as fair value on that deal and could help fill out what looks to be a very underwhelming forward rotation. With a new GM coming in, this is one of the most interesting decisions of the coming days. If the Pistons waive him, Brown should have a market as a back-end rotation player around the minimum or taxpayer MLE.

16. Simone Fontecchio, Detroit (restricted): $4,720,464

Detroit traded for Fontecchio last season with the idea of keeping his low cap hold ($5.2 million) and then paying him in free agency. I was a bit surprised BORD$ didn’t value Fontecchio higher after he showed solid defensive chops and plus 3-point shooting (40.1 percent) a year ago. While they needn’t go bonkers shelling out for a restricted free agent, something in the three-year, $20 million to $25 million range feels fair.

17. Cedi Osman, San Antonio: $4,389,031

Osman’s fit in San Antonio likely depends on whom the Spurs draft with the fourth and eighth picks, but if he has to find a new home, he should find suitors with the taxpayer MLE or leftover exception money.

18. Dalano Banton, Portland (team option): $3,585,999

Banton has a team option for $2.2 million and played well enough at the end of last season that the rebuilding Trail Blazers should definitely keep him. One angle, however, would be to decline his option then sign him to a longer deal using the nontaxpayer MLE. The reason that likely won’t happen is that the Blazers, amazingly, have some real luxury tax issues this season and likely need to keep Banton at that low $2.2 million number before paying him next summer.

19. Cam Reddish, L.A. Lakers (player option): $3,591,439

Reddish has a player option for $2.5 million and a valuation that’s only slightly higher. Given the paucity of 6-8 wing players on the market, he might opt out to at least parlay that into another “one-plus-one” minimum deal with a player option. If he does so with the Lakers and can play himself into a higher pay grade, he’d have Early Bird rights next summer as a means to cash in.

Tier V: Minimums

20. Gordon Hayward, Oklahoma City

Hayward is constantly injured and was a disaster with the Thunder. However, he actually put together a pretty solid half-year in Charlotte and would be worth a look for a team needing a connector and scorer off the bench.

Gordon Hayward drives to the basket around Pacers forward Pascal Siakam. (Alonzo Adams / USA Today)

21. Justin Holiday, Denver
 
Now 35, Holiday has become a rather extreme low-usage offensive player. But he defends respectably, makes his share of 3s (40.4 percent last season) and never gets hurt, making him useful in a tertiary role on a one-year minimum.

22. Joe Ingles, Orlando (team option)

Ingles has a team option for $11 million. Whether the Magic pick it up likely depends on their cap room aspirations more than any calculus about Ingles, who could likely be retained with either the room exception or a minimum deal if the Magic declined the option. If they pick it up, his $11 million expiring deal instantly becomes a chunk of matching salary in any future trade machinations.

23. Torrey Craig, Chicago (player option)

Craig has a guaranteed $2.8 million waiting for him in Chicago if he wants it but might try testing the market after hitting 39 percent from 3 in consecutive seasons. Even if he can’t do better than another minimum deal, he could parlay it into a “one-plus-one” with a player option that gives him some added security.

24. Mario Hezonja, Real Madrid

Hezonja shot 39.0 percent from 3 and 89.6 percent from the line for Madrid last season, and he’s still only 29 years old. His first run through the league didn’t go so well, but he’s big and can jump and is more grown up now. He has a decent shot at returning.

25. Vít Krejčí, Atlanta (restricted two-way)

The Hawks started Krejčí for 14 games in the stretch run of last season but bizarrely never promoted him from his two-way and left him ineligible for the Play-In. He presumably will be signed to the main roster this offseason as a restricted free agent.

26. Jamal Cain, Miami (restricted two-way)

Cain is two-way eligible for another year, but he was good enough in his stints in the G League and NBA last season that I wonder if another team will offer him a roster contract. Miami can match, of course, but the Heat have tax issues and may not be able to spare the roster spot.

27. Brandon Boston, LA Clippers (restricted)

Boston is 22 and has shown periodic flashes in his three pro seasons, but he took a step back in his 32 games last season and still hasn’t been able to crack the back end of the Clippers’ rotation. He’s two-way eligible if the market for a roster contract turns on him.

28. Javonte Green, Chicago

I’m not sure why he was out of the league most of the year, but Green re-signed with Chicago late last season and was very effective in the nine games he played. He has his limitations offensively, but his energy and athleticism belong on a roster.

29. Kessler Edwards, Sacramento (restricted)

Edwards moves a bit stiffly and has near-zero shot-creation chops, but between his ability to defend competently and his 38.5 percent mark from 3, he should have a landing spot on a roster someplace. The Kings can make him a restricted free agent with a qualifying offer for just above the minimum, but don’t expect a bidding war to break out.

30. Jordan Nwora, Toronto

If anyone watched the Raptors in the second half of last season, the 25-year-old Nwora might have done enough in his 34 games to rekindle some interest in his stock. He still needs to shoot and defend more consistently for teams to feel good about him as a rotation player, but a 14.2 PER on 57.3 percent true shooting as a Raptor will get some attention.

31. Svi Mykhailiuk, Boston

The 27-year-old swingman is a reliable shooter with size and was good enough in 41 games for Boston (11.7 PER, 57.5 percent true shooting) that he should find a landing spot as fifth wing on somebody’s roster.

Boston’s Svi Mykhailiuk moves the ball up-court against Portland during a game in April. (Eric Canha / USA Today)

Tier VI: Signed but vulnerable

32. Kendall Brown, Indiana (non-guaranteed)

Brown has a non-guarnateed deal for $2.1 million. He hasn’t made much of an impact in either the G League or the NBA in his two seasons after being drafted, but he’s 21 and is still two-way eligible. Indy doesn’t need the cap space and has until training camp to make a decision, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see him back on a two-way the Pacers.

Tier VII: Everyone else

33. Yuta Watanabe, Memphis (player option)

Watanabe has a guaranteed $2.6 million player option waiting for him in Memphis, but also supposedly has agreed to a new deal in Japan. If that involves him declining the option, that’s great news for the Grizzlies given their luxury tax concerns. If not, this could get tricky.
 
34. Wesley Matthews, Atlanta

Matthews turns 38 this fall and has been in decline for a while, but his 36 games for the Hawks in 2023-24 weren’t radically different from his previous few seasons. One wonders if Mike Budenholzer would be up for a reunion in Phoenix.

35. Danuel House, Philadelphia

With consecutive PERs of 9.4 and 8.5 in Philly, and turning 31 this year, House might have a hard time finding a roster spot this summer. Shooting just 30.0 percent from 3 last season won’t help, although his career numbers (35.9 percent) are more encouraging.

36. Matt Ryan, New Orleans

Ryan can stroke it (41.1 percent from 3 across three NBA seasons), and although he’s 27, he’s still two-way eligible for one more season.

37. Reggie Bullock, Houston

He’s 33 and has posted a 7.7 PER in consecutive seasons, so we’re definitely winding toward the end of the road here. However, Bullock might have some 3-and-D utility at the end of the right roster.

38. Emoni Bates, Cleveland (restricted two-way)

The 20-year-old was the 49th pick in the 2023 draft; he struggled in his G League minutes and was excruciating in his limited NBA run, but his age and size/skill profile mean he’ll almost certainly get more chances. There are no barriers to Cleveland bringing him back on another two-way.

39. Keyontae Johnson, Oklahoma City (restricted two-way)

The 50th pick in the 2023 draft only played 66 minutes for the Thunder, but he shot 40.4 percent from 3 in the G League. He’s already 24, but at worst, that performance should get him invited back for another two-way.

40. Seth Lundy, Atlanta (restricted two-way)

Lundy only got 52 minutes with the varsity last season after the Hawks made him the 52nd pick in 2023, but his G League season (18.0 PER, 40 percent from 3) was good enough to warrant bringing him back on another two-way.

(Top photo of Paul George: Christian Petersen / Getty Images)