Scotland vs Switzerland Odds, Picks & Predictions – Euro 2024

It’s perhaps hard to believe but Scotland played poorer than their 5-1 loss to Germany suggests. This doesn’t bode well for their next match. While Switzerland likely won’t overpower them as substantially, our picks don’t expect a sudden rebound.

Jun 18, 2024 • 18:44 ET

• 4 min read

Scotland were humiliated in the opening fixture of Euro 2024 5-1 to Germany. Now, their backs are against the wall, and they must secure at least a point vs. Switzerland lest they be almost assured of being eliminated before their final fixture.

The Swiss got a late goal in stoppage time to secure three points in a 3-1 victory over Hungary, as they racked up 15 shots and controlled much of the match.

Find out who we’re backing to get the win in our Scotland vs Switzerland prediction and Euro 2024 picks for Wednesday, June 19.

Scotland vs Switzerland picks, predictions, and betting tips

My best bet:
Switzerland moneyline (-114 at Betano)

My analysis

Most looking at this match won’t dig much deeper than Scotland’s final scoreline against Germany. It’s hard to blame them when you lose 5-1.

But look closely. The scoreline probably didn’t do justice to how poorly Scotland played. Let’s start with their attack, which saw them take one total shot the entire match as they registered just 0.02 xG. After all, their lone marker was courtesy of an own-goal from Germany’s Antonio Rudiger.

Their passing was especially abysmal. The Scots completed just 75% of their attempts, with fewer than 200 passes completed compared to 693 for the Germans. They couldn’t get out of their own end, and their attacks halted on the few occasions they did.

Germany’s five goals came from just 2.15 xG, but Scotland conceded 10 shots on goal, which led to a 3.33 xGOT due to their poor positioning on defense. Yes, Scotland was down a man for the entire second half, but they were getting ripped apart before that.

Switzerland’s 3-1 win over Hungary saw them limit their opponents to just six shots and only two efforts on goal. One was a point-blank header as they fell asleep on a cross, but the Swiss defended extremely well apart from that.

Their backline features Manuel Akanji and Fabian Scharr, while Yann Sommer is one of the better goalkeepers in Europe. Midfielder Granit Xhaka helps shore up the area in front of the defense, and they’ve conceded just two goals in their last five matches. And now they’re expecting midfielder Denis Zakaria to be available, another excellent defender.

Scotland have three goals over their last two matches, and two were own goals. Take away their two tallies vs. lowly Gibraltar, and the Scots have scored one goal of their own in their last four matches. They lack a true threat in attack, with central midfielder Scott McTominay often having to find their goals.

The Dutch beat the Scots 4-0. The Germans beat them 5-1. The Swiss may not beat them as badly, but beat them they will. Bank on the Swiss (pun intended) to secure their spot in the knockout stages as they win outright.

Scotland vs Switzerland same-game parlay (SGP)

Switzerland moneyline

Ruben Vargas 1+ shots on goal

Scotland Under 3.5 corners

Swiss attacker Ruben Vargas has at least one shot on goal in five of his last six starts for the Swiss national team and put two of them on frame against Hungary as he registered 0.59 xG. He’s scored twice in his last seven matches for the team and is often at the heart of everything they do in attack.

Scotland conceded goals to all three of Germany’s starting forwards, so I expect Vargas to get a quality look. I love this Vargas prop so much that I nearly gave it out as my best bet. I recommend playing it not just as part of the SGP, but also as a side play.

The Swiss don’t concede many corner kicks, with Hungary earning just two in the opening match. Their last seven opponents have attempted no more than four corners, and Scotland had zero against Germany.

Scotland have totaled 10 corners in their last six matches vs. teams in Euro 2024. Switzerland should control this match, and Scotland won’t earn four corners before it’s over.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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