Switzerland v Italy: Swiss can roll over disjointed champions

Granit Xhaka hopes to lead Switzerland to the quarter-finals again

Switzerland v ItalySaturday 29 June, 17:00

It’s always fascinating how fortunes and performance levels can fluctuate within a tournament, and sometimes even within a game. Switzerland blew Hungary away in the first half of their opener, racing into a 2-0 lead, but they then faded in the second half of a nerve-jangling 2-1 victory. In their second game, Switzerland started and finished badly against Scotland, but did enough to secure a 1-1 draw.

By far Switzerland’s best performance was in the game against Germany in Frankfurt. Coach Murat Yakin, who went into the tournament with criticism and the doubts of others ringing in his ears, got his team selection and tactics spot-on. He selected the speedy Fabian Rieder in a front three, using his mobility and work-rate to aid a furious press. Germany were given a really tough time as they tried to build up from the back, and midfield fulcrum Toni Kroos was fouled three times.

That speed was also useful in attack (Bologna’s Dan Ndoye scored his first ever international goal, and I sense he’ll score plenty more), and in defence the Swiss were simply outstanding, with Manuel Akanji and Fabian Schär particularly impressive. The goal that pegged them back in a 1-1 draw was borderline unstoppable – David Raum’s inch-perfect cross was headed home superbly by super-sub Niclas Füllkrug.

Switzerland have now qualified for the knockout phase of the last six major tournaments (France are the only other European team to do that), and at the last Euro they caused a major upset at this stage as they dumped out France, one of the most famous results in Swiss football history.

Right-sided wing-back Silvan Widmer is suspended, so Leonidas Stergiou is expected to come in. Breel Embolo is expected to keep his place at centre-forward, while Ruben Vargas is pushing hard to replace Rieder in the front three. The mercurial Xherdan Shaqiri – who scored a superb goal against Scotland – may be left out of the starting XI once again.

Italy boss Luciano Spalletti can be a lovely man, but if you cross him, he’ll let you know. The man who led Napoli to the Scudetto last year had to apologise for a frankly outrageous response to a question following the Azzurri’s deeply unconvincing 1-1 draw with Croatia, a result that sealed their place in the last 16, but one that only arrived courtesy of Mattia Zaccagni’s 98th-minute leveller.

Spalletti lambasted his team for a lack of quality at times, but more worryingly a lack of fight, failing to win enough of the 50-50 challenges that can define a match. It’s worth remembering that Italy had to recover from conceding a first-minute goal before they edged out Albania, and then they were battered by Spain in one of the most one-sided 1-0 defeats in Euros history.

In some ways, we shouldn’t be surprised by Italy’s stumbles. They failed to qualify for the 2022 World Cup, and Euro-winning coach Roberto Mancini jumped ship and went to Saudi Arabia in August, leaving attack-minded veteran Spalletti to pick up the pieces.

Spalletti is refusing to compromise his principles and adopt a more pragmatic approach, insisting he will simply have to teach his players how better to play his football. There have been some impressive performers – keeper Gigio Donnarumma has been excellent, and roving centre-back Riccardo Calafiori has shown how he helped Bologna qualify for the Champions League this term.

Calafiori is suspended for this game, so Roma’s Gianluca Mancini could come in. Spalletti must decide whether Gianluca Scamacca or Mateo Retegui should lead the line at centre-forward, with neither having scored so far.

I stated in my Group A wrap-up that Switzerland would go out in the quarter-finals, and I still believe that to be the case, with England their likely opponents in the last eight. I believe Switzerland are the more settled side at present, and they have players in form. Granit Xhaka can help to win the midfield battle, the defensive line looks rock-solid, and there is plenty of pace in the attack.

I’ll back Switzerland to qualify at 2.28.

There’s an argument to say that Granit Xhaka was Bayer Leverkusen’s most influential player as they completed an unbeaten domestic double, and towards the end of the season he developed a handy knack of scoring stunning goals from long range, including the winner in the final of the DFB Pokal.

Xhaka has had a shot on target in all three group games so far, and against Germany he fully extended Manuel Neuer from outside the box.

If you look at the Player Shot On Target Specials on the Betfair Sportsbook, you’ll see you can back Xhaka to have a shot on target from outside the box at a chunky 3/1.