Stoppage Time Equalizer Sees Italy Through
Without Mattia Zaccagni’s 98th-minute equalizer against Croatia, defending champions Italy may not have made it out of the group stage. With the draw, they edged Croatia and finished second in Group B.
Italy take on Group A runners-up Switzerland in the first Round of 16 match on Saturday. Switzerland nearly beat Germany last weekend and these are two well-matched teams. Ahead of the game, we’ll take a look at the Switzerland vs Italy Euro odds.
Switzerland vs Italy
Records: Switzerland (1-2-0), Italy (1-1-1)
Date & Time: Saturday, June 29th, 12:00 p.m. ET
Location: Olympiastadion, Berlin, Germany
Stream: Fox Sports
Switzerland vs Italy Head-to-Head
Since losing 1-0 to Switzerland in a 1993 World Cup Qualifying match, Italy are unbeaten in their last 11 games against the Swiss. This has been an incredibly draw-heavy fixture lately, with five ties in the last six meetings. These sides last met in a 2021 World Cup Qualifier which finished 1-1 as Italy’s Jorginho missed a late penalty.
Switzerland drew twice against Italy in qualifiers and finished ahead of the Azzurri to qualify for Qatar 2022. Italy also defeated Switzerland 3-0 in the group stage of Euro 2020. The Switzerland vs Italy Euro odds listed Italy as -170 pregame favorites.
Switzerland Minutes Away From Topping Group A
The Swiss nearly managed to finish on top of Group A ahead of Germany. However, the Germans got a stoppage-time equalizer to finish two points ahead of Switzerland. In the group stage, the Nati went 1-2-0 on their Euro 2024 schedule with a win over Hungary and draws against Scotland and Germany. Switzerland scored in all three matches and they remain unbeaten in 2024 with a 3-4-0 record.
Defender Silvan Widmer is suspended for this match. He was also suspended for Switzerland’s last 16 match against Portugal in the 2022 World Cup, which Switzerland lost 6-1. Regardless, Switzerland have looked like a difficult team to beat and have solid midfield players.
Granit Xhaka was key in Bayer Leverkusen’s historic unbeaten domestic campaign and Remo Freuler has been playing well. Bettors should note Switzerland managed to defeat France in penalties at Euro 2020. It also took Spain to penalties in the Quarters. They’re a team that can compete with anyone in the tournament even if they’re not the most talented offensively.
Manuel Akanji, Fabian Schar, and Ricardo Rodriguez are three key defenders for Switzerland while goalkeeper Yann Sommer has big game experience. One of the Euro 2024 injuries to report is Schar’s broken nose but he played on against Scotland and started in the draw versus Germany.
| Key Stats | Switzerland | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 3 | 3 |
| Won | 1 | 1 |
| Draw | 2 | 1 |
| Lost | 0 | 1 |
| Goals | 5 | 3 |
| Total Attempts | 30 | 33 |
| Passing Accuracy (%) | 83.3 | 88.7 |
| Attacks | 117 | 129 |
| Balls Recovered | 104 | 105 |
| Saves | 5 | 12 |
| Yellow Cards | 8 | 7 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
Italy Sneak into Round of 16
The Azzurri did just enough to advance to the round of 16 and left it until the final minute, literally. After conceding to Croatia in the 55th minute, Italy committed numbers forward and it paid off in stoppage time. Breakout center back Riccardo Calafiori found substitute winger Mattia Zaccagni, who beautifully curled the ball into the net with a right-footed effort from just inside the box.
The Azzurri drew 1-1 against Croatia, lost to Spain 1-0, and beat Albania 2-1 in the group stage. Italy emerged from the group of death in second place. Now, looking at the knockout stage Euro 2024 draw, Italy have avoided all of Spain, Germany, Portugal, and France until the final.
Still, Italy’s performances have been uneven and they’ve experienced a lot of turnover from their Euro 2020 form three years ago. Luciano Spalletti has yet to settle on Italy’s most effective lineup. Against Croatia, he made three changes from the Spain game.
Plus, Calafiori is suspended, which means someone like Gianluca Mancini or Federico Gatti will likely start in his place at center back. None of Italy’s strikers (Gianluca Scamacca, Mateo Retegui, and Giacomo Raspadori) have scored yet at the Euros, which is undoubtedly concerning.
Switzerland vs Italy Match Analysis & Odds
Three of Italy’s four knockout stage matches at Euro 2020 en route to the title went to extra time. So did both of Switzerland’s knockout stage games. These are two teams who can grind out results and both rarely lose. Heading into this round of 16 match, Switzerland have only lost one of their 17 games since the 2022 World Cup.
Meanwhile, Italy have lost just two of their last 14 matches, in all competitions. Here, the Switzerland vs Italy Euro odds price the Azzurri as +150 favorites. Switzerland like to attack on the wings and Italy were exposed in their match against Spain in wide areas. Switzerland show reasonable +225 odds to get their first win over the Italians in 31 years. A draw, which no one would be surprised by, sits at +190.
Bettors who want to back Italy’s unbeaten run against Switzerland to continue can take Italy pk at -145. Meanwhile, Switzerland pk comes in at +125 odds in a match that could go either way.
Neither team has a prolific striker but over two goals display -115 odds here. This is a match that could be decided by substitutions. Italy’s Zaccagni and Switzerland’s Xherdan Shaqiri are capable of match-winning moments.
| Team | Handicap |
|---|---|
| Switzerland | pk +125 |
| Italy | pk -145 |